Satyam "No Satya, No Sunder"

I usually don't believe in conspiracy theories but here I am giving you the other picture of so called "Satyam fraud case". I know that you all be aware of this case so I am not going to explain you the fake figures.

In this whole case the main thing which stuck to my mind is what makes Raju to suddenly confess the thing of fraud of thousands of crores Rs. when everyone knows that India's system is the one in which any person like him can easily get out or pass decades easily.
As Raju said in his confession letter that he is doing because for his "internal satisfaction". He also said that he is the only one who was involved in this. But I don't think this the case.

Now I am going to tell you the possibilities.....
First, may be the confession letter is also a part of the fraud and Raju and his friends are making money of this market. You would think that how can a person can make money from down market. but people who know about Put and short option can understand the earning by down market and it is possible also because only Raju knew about it before time. any one knew it before it came to media can easily short sell the stock of ten times than what money have so if market is down by 80% you can earn around 800 % of money what you have. It is also possible that this crash is making thousands of Rs for Raju's men.One can also say that Satyam loss is Raju's loss as he is the CEO. No ... because he has only 3% stake in Satyam. If you have 100 rs in one pocket and 3 rs in other pocket than which pocket will you want save. One answer 100 rs.

Second,DSP Merrill lynch (ML), There is a possibility that ML which was working for regaining investors' confidence who came to know about the balance sheet fraud and they were planning to reveal it but this cause bankruptcy of Satyam, so may be they have forced raju to confess something minimum. So we can say that the fraud may be bigger than which is reviled. One can make doubt about ML, I would say about it is all Institutional investors started selling Satyam shares at 75- 80 rs/shr but ML sold it at 108rs./shr may be because they knew the really situation.

Third, Raju is really a gentleman. The person who tried to increase the share price of the company in which he has less than 5% stake. See if first two things are not true than we can say that Raju haven't got a single coin from the fraud. he was just trying to make the company successful on charts and trying to remove the company from the fear of possible merger or acquisition and it is not at all wrong intension.

fourth, If the first possibility is true than this also can happen that the confession letter is bogus(only the figures.) and the fraud is smaller but there is almost zero possibility of it.

Finally we are waiting for merger with a good company. I have received around 30 calls in last one day asking about the company. some people are saying to leave the company. I would like to suggest you to if any one want to take risk than buy 100 shares of Satyam in price range 15 - 25 rs/shr. and hope for merger with a reputed company. It will cost you 1500 - 2500rs(at max 4000). is equal to your expenditure in making "Bills".

So Be optimistic !
All the best !
<--- Manish Jain --->